Natural Gas. Heating season is over, what's next?
Last week, temperatures in the US rose, which led to a decrease in demand for natural gas from the commercial and residential sector. But in the south of the country is not hot enough to increase gas consumption from the energy sector. Gas production remains lower than last year's value, but consumption also remains low. The reserves of natural gas are beginning to replenish, which is quite normal for the current point in time. Weather reports suggest that the temperature will continue to grow and will be slightly hotter than normal in one places and cooler in athother. Whether this is sufficient to further reduce the demand for gas from the heating systems and the growth from the energy side is not known. In any case, I'm waiting for a new monthly EIA STEO report, which will be released on Tuesday. From mid-April to mid-June, the natural gas market is seasonally in an uptrend. The price reverse because of distributors that accumulate their inventories for the upcoming summer season (especially in those regions where natural gas is the main fuel for generating electricity). It is difficult to say now how seasonality will work this year, because different models give contradictory forecasts for the next few months.